Ein heißer Herbst – und ein sehr kalter Winter

Die Führung der Volksrepublik CHINA hat eine ernste WARNUNG veröffentlicht – keine der seit Jahrzehnten belächelten „letzten Warnungen“, sondern den Aufmarsch der PLA zu Wasser, auf dem Boden und in der Luft.

Aber: die USA nehmen diese Fakten nicht zur Kenntnis, sie provozieren weiter, sie planen die Verheizung Tausender Taiwan-Chinesen ebenso wie sie Ukrainer, Polen, Slowaken etc. vor die russische Artillerie als Zielscheibe aufstellen.

Manche Experten verweisen auf die aus fünftausend JAHREN sprichwörtliche stammende chinesische GEDULD !

China ist nicht wütend –

China sammelt sich

Ich zweifle an der Weisheit dieser Experten! Ich zweifle auch an der Prognose jener „Fachleute“, die China erst im Jahre 2035 in die Lage versetzt sehen, militärisch mit den USA gleichzuziehen. China ist nicht nur gesellschaftspolitisch und ökonomisch ein anderes Tempo gewöhnt als die USA oder die Staaten Westeuropas, die PLA beschleunigt konventionell, nuklear, im Weltraum und auf allen Ozeanen auf allen Gebieten in einem Maße, wie es bisher in der Geschichte nicht bekannt war.

Was für manche Politik- und Militärwissenschaftler des Westens im Vorbeigehen notiert wurde – der Einsatz der PLA im System der UN-Friedenstruppen – ist für die chinesische Führung ein willkommener globaler militärischer Lernprozess und ein wichtiges Element im Aufbau und Ausbau politischer stabiler Beziehungen in Afrika, im Nahen Osten.

Angesichts solcher harten Fakten ist eine erfolgreiche militärische Aktion (vergleichbar mit dem Vorgehen Russlands in der Ukraine) der PLA gegenüber den Streitkräften Taiwans im Herbst d.J. durchaus möglich.

Zu den geopolitischen Fragen, die eine derartige Entscheidung Pekings aufwirft, sollte man sich die Resonanz der chinesischen Medien auf die bemerkenswerten Reden des russischen Präsidenten Putins und seines Verteidigungsministers Schoigu in den letzten Wochen vor internationelem hochrangigen internationalen Politikern und Militärs ansehen.

Putins Rede auf der Moskauer Sicherheitskonferenz überschrieb RT.de , „Russlands Botschaft an die Welt: Reicht uns die Hand, wir helfen euch auf dem Weg in die Freiheit“, )Kernsatz:“Überang von der Dominanz einer einzigen globalen Führung hin zu mehreren Gravitationszentren“)

Sowohl Putin als auch Schoigu betonen die zentrale Rolle des Militärs:

„Die Rolle militärischer Tätigkeit ändert sich in der neuen Wirklichkeit. Das Militär garantiert nicht nur eine sichere Umgebung für die wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit, sondern durch militärische Zusammenarbeit schafft es Vorhersagbarkeit und Vertrauen zwischen Ländern.“

In ihrer Plazierung auf internationaler Ebene, in der gewählten Öffentlichkeit sind diese Thesen von strategischer Bedeutung – bisher auch nicht negativ kommentiert aus CHINA, was man sich vielleicht in den Büros der Annalena Baerbock, Ricarda Lang, Norbert Röttgen so sehnlichst wünschte, sondern solche Töne aus Beijing:

As the US attempts to sustain hegemony, China, Russia safeguard international order, justice

By Global Times Published: Aug 18, 2022 11:25 PMIllustration: Chen Xia/GT

Illustration: Chen Xia/GT
How to evaluate the strength of a major power? To see its attitude toward its opponents. In his press briefing on Wednesday, US State Department Spokesman Ned Price referred to China-Russia relationship as a „burgeoning“ one, which is „of concern“ because the vision they have for the international order is „starkly at odds to the liberal vision“ and „with the underpinnings of the international system that have been in place for some eight decades following the end of the Second World War.“

The US concerns toward China and Russia are also reflected in the latest massive coverage in the Western media about China sending troops to Russia to participate in the „Vostok“ exercises, and the hype of the so-called threat from the two countries.

A thief crying „stop thief.“ The US‘ concerns about the China-Russia relationship are the product of US‘ own strategic anxiety. Washington worries that the US-centered international order established after WWII would collapse, and the coordination between China and Russia in the security realm could offset US‘ influence in the international order the US has long dominated.

US‘ strategic anxiety stems from the fact that the US is declining, said Zhang Tengjun, deputy director of the Department for Asia-Pacific Studies at the China Institute of International Studies. „The US maintains its strategic competition posture with China and Russia simultaneously in the directions of Ukraine and the Asia-Pacific. Under such circumstances, if China and Russia get closer, it will affect US‘ deployment of resources in the two directions and hinder its efforts to dominate regional order. But US‘ current strength does not allow it to focus on both,“ said Zhang.

The mismatch of US‘ strength and its mentality of viewing itself as the world’s No.1 is the root cause of the existing division and chaos of the world. Zhang held the view that the crux of the problem is not what China and Russia have done or not done, but whether the US and the West can overcome their fears and anxiety about their own decline.

From the perspective of the international order, the US is the most prominent representative of hegemonism, while China and Russia are actually defending the international order, fairness and justice. Cui Heng, an assistant researcher at the Center for Russian Studies at East China Normal University, believes that the strategic cooperation between China and Russia injects positive momentum into the international community. 

„When the US-led NATO bombed Yugoslavia more than 20 years ago, no force could restrain the hegemony of the US. Can the US still do this today? Obviously not. At the regional level, the coordination between China and Russia is a constructive force. Taking Afghanistan as an example. The US left a mess, but in the end it is China, Russia and other neighboring countries that are helping clean up the mess,“ said Cui, adding that those who twist China-Russia relations reflect their wretched purposes, short-sightedness as well as failure to understand that the continuous strengthening of this bilateral relationship serves for world peace and stability.

Henry Kissinger, former US secretary of state, said in a recent interview with the Wall Street Journal that „we are at the edge of war with Russia and China on issues which we partly created, without any concept of how this is going to end or what it’s supposed to lead to.“ Sadly, even though Kissinger’s advice serves for US interests, the mainstream elites in the US who have slipped into the abyss of American political correctness won’t heed such advice. If the US goes its own way to become enemies with China and Russia, it is isolating itself in the world.

Wer glaubt, das sei eine Eintagsfliege, dem ist die Lektüre jenes Artikels aus der nämlichen GLOBAL TIMES vom März empfohlen:

Mutual trust between China and Russia is a valuable asset for global stability

By Wu Dahui Published: Mar 24, 2022 07:23 PMChina Russia Photo: VCG

China Russia Photo: VCG

The US-led West has not stopped its ill-intentioned attempt to coerce China on the Ukraine issue since the outbreak of the conflict.

From threatening sanctions on China and hyping the idea that „China had prior knowledge“ of Russia’s action at the beginning of the clash to falsely claiming „China colluding with Russia,“ „China willing to give military supports to Russia“ and „China weakens West’s sanctions on Russia“ in March, these groundless accusations all highlight Washington’s unbridled arrogance and hegemony.

In the current international situation, no matter how China handles its relationship with Russia, Western countries will not be satisfied and will think that China is secretly helping Russia. Even if China, Russia’s largest trading partner, maintains normal economic and trade relations with Russia, it will be considered to be contradicting the Western sanctions against Russia.

For instance, China recently announced to accept the import of wheat from the whole territory of Russia, and Russia announced the China-Mongolia-Russia natural gas corridor plan. These cooperation plans have been discussed by China and Russia for a long time, just because they are announced close to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, some in Western countries assumed that China is actively bailing Russia out. Yet, China’s humanitarian assistance to Ukraine has been neglect by the West. 

In fact, the West’s suppression of China is not due to China’s attitude toward Russia, but because of the rapid development of China’s national strength. Although China has repeatedly emphasized that it has no intention of challenging the US, as long as China has the strength to challenge it, or even only getting close to the US, it is viewed as a huge threat already.

In the US‘ logic, after China has the strength, it can have the willingness to challenge the US anytime it wants. Therefore, whether China is a rivalry against the US or not, it’s up to the US to decide. And this is what the West calls a structural contradiction between the two largest economies in the world.

In dealing with international affairs, China always makes its own judges according to the actual situation, justice and its own national interests. These factors are equally important in making proper foreign policies. Even as justice in international affairs has been arbitrarily twisted by a US-led circle, in the end, a country that arbitrarily smears and kidnaps international justice will eventually be despised by the international community.

The China-Russia strategic partnership is based on a similar basic understanding of the world today and the national interests of both countries. However, the China-Russian relationship is not an alliance after all, and the two countries‘ perceptions of international affairs and their national interests cannot completely overlap.

Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China has made it clear that it respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries, including Ukraine. China and Russia have different positions and views on certain regional and international issues. But this does not hinder the overall situation of China-Russia strategic cooperation.

Although China and Russia’s strategic cooperation is a bilateral relationship, it has global significance and is directly related to the stability of the region and the world. This is also the international responsibility that China and Russia should shoulder as the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council.

It’s hard to imagine what would the world be like without the strategic cooperation between China and Russia? As China’s Ambassador to the US, Qin Gang, recently noted China’s trusted relations with Russia is not a liability. It’s an asset in the international efforts to solve the crisis in a peaceful way. In other words, maintaining the stability of China-Russian relations is a key element of global harmony.

The core essence of the China-Russia strategic partnership of coordination is non-alignment, non-confrontation, and non-targeting of third parties. This is a new security concept that is completely different from the Cold War mentality that Western countries adhere to. Neither China nor Russia has the will to move toward an alliance and choose to confront the West.

In the face of the turbulent international situation surrounding the Ukraine crisis, China and Russia do not need and have no intention of forming an alliance, and China has no obligation or desire to cut China-Russia strategic cooperation. Bilateral ties only need to maintain the level and rhythm of the original strategic cooperation. It will be the greatest contribution to world stability and development.

The author is the deputy dean of the Russian Institute of Tsinghua University. bizopinion@globaltimes.com.cn

Machen wir uns auf einen Heißen Herbst gefasst !!!

Dr. Dieter Weigert,Berlin, 20. August 2022

Autor: Sternberlin

Dr. phil. habil.(Philosophie und politische Wissenschaften) , inzwischen Pensionär - aktiv in Denkmalschutz und Denkmalpflege, besonders Kirchen und historische Friedhöfe in Berlin an Wochenenden - unter der Woche in unregelmäßigen Abständen engagiert in Lehrerfortbildung (Geschichte, Architektur, Literatur und Theater.Bildende Kunst)

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